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The articles in this collection examine a range of weather and climate phenomena that are extreme either in their rarity, intensity, or both. Such research aims to help societies better anticipate and manage the challenges of the most impactful future weather and climate events, be they weeks or decades from now.
Scientific interest in weather and climate extremes has exploded in recent years. Now, however, scientists increasingly have more to say about expected changes in the frequency and intensity of such extremes. First, there is a growing understanding of how weather and climate extremes may change under anthropogenic warming. Second, there is a new and emerging ability to predict the likelihood of extreme weather over the next few weeks or month—the subseasonal-to-seasonal S2S time range.
Interest in S2S forecasts, especially of extremes, has been the impetus for several national and international research programs as described by Mariotti and her colleagues. S2S prediction of extremes also raises new questions, including how best to evaluate the quality of such forecasts.
Ford and coauthors 3 proposed a seamless method for assessing the quality extreme heat forecasts from days to weeks ahead. This approach identified problems with currently available forecast models and possible strategies for their improvement. Mundhenk and coauthors 4 report on the relationship between AR activity and the Madden-Julian Oscillation MJO , which is known to be predictable several weeks in advance.
This finding provides a scientific basis and method for skillful, subseasonal forecasts of AR activity and extreme rainfall. However, a warmer climate may lead to enhanced moisture transport by ARs. Lu and coauthors 5 examined climate projections and found that longer and more frequent landfalling ARs in the future would increase hydrological extremes over the northeastern Pacific and western United States by the end of the 21st century.
In other areas of the world, tropical cyclones are responsible for the most extreme rainfall events, and a warming climate is expected to increase rainfall rates.
In addition to impacts on rainfall and tropical cyclones, warming oceans also impact ecosystems. This trend is expected to accelerate with further global warming, leading to adverse, and possibly irreversible, impacts on marine organisms and ecosystems. Climate extremes have impacts in the soil as well as the oceans. Basto and coauthors 9 examined the natural soil seed bank where dormant seed are stored underground. Extended periods of drought had detrimental effects on grassland species above ground, but several species disappeared altogether from the underground seed bank after multiple years of drought.
Tornadoes are not rare in the United States, more than are reported each year, but they can cause loss of life and intense damage. Trapp and Hoogewind 10 find a new and unexpected robust statistical relation between tornado activity and Arctic sea ice extent SIE during boreal summer, with decreases in SIE being correlated with decreases in tornado activity.
These findings are unexpected and contrast with studies that associate increases in extreme weather with declining SIE. Weather and climate extremes pose scientific challenges as well as societal ones. Much of the recent progress can be traced back to improvements modeling and simulation. Extremes such as heavy rainfall depend on physical processes that occur on short time scales and small spatial scales.
Increased computational power has allowed higher time and space resolution that provide more realistic depictions of extremes for numerical weather prediction and climate change projections. Nonetheless, uncertainties remain, especially at regional scales, as to how a changing climate will change the frequency and intensity of extremes, and continued efforts are needed to better understand the wide range of time and space scales that are involved in weather and climate extremes.
Mariotti, A. Progress in subseasonal to seasonal prediction through a joint weather and climate community effort. Vitart, F. The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project S2S and the prediction of extreme events. Ford, T. Evaluation of heat wave forecasts seamlessly across subseasonal timescales. Mundhenk, B. Skillful empirical subseasonal prediction of landfalling atmospheric river activity using the Madden—Julian oscillation and quasi-biennial oscillation. Google Scholar.
Lu, J. Enhanced hydrological extremes in the western United States under global warming through the lens of water vapor wave activity.
Knutson, T. Kossin, J. A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed. Nature , — Marine heatwaves under global warming. Basto, S. Severe effects of long-term drought on calcareous grassland seed banks.
Trapp, R. Exploring a possible connection between U. Tang, Q. Extreme summer weather in northern mid-latitudes linked to a vanishing cryosphere. Gensini, V. Spatial trends in United States tornado frequency.
Download references. Correspondence to Michael K. Reprints and Permissions. Tippett, M. Extreme weather and climate. Download citation. Received : 12 November Accepted : 26 November Published : 10 December Advances in Meteorology Advanced search. Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily. Skip to main content Thank you for visiting nature. Download PDF. Subjects Climate change.
References 1. Tippett Authors Michael K. Tippett View author publications. Ethics declarations Competing interests The author declares no competing interests. About this article. Cite this article Tippett, M. Journal information About the Journal Contact. Search Search articles by keyword or author Search. Close banner Close. Email address Sign up. Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox.
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Choose the preferred format for your device. Continue Shopping. We know how to prepare our homes for each seasonal change, but do we know how to prepare for climate change? Violent weather events like floods, tornadoes, ice storms and hurricanes only tell part of the story. Climate change is frequently more subtle but its effects on our homes and properties can still be devastating. Nearly 50 percent of North America has a potential for structural damage from shifting moisture in expansive clay soils; a condition that is already costing billions of dollars each year.
PDF | Climate Extreme (extreme weather or climate event) refers to the occurrence of a value of a weather or climate variable above (or below).
In the early s, a new field of climate-science research emerged that began to explore the human fingerprint on extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms. These studies have the power to link the seemingly abstract concept of climate change with personal and tangible experiences of the weather. Scientists have published more than peer-reviewed studies looking at weather extremes around the world, from heatwaves in Sweden and droughts in South Africa to flooding in Bangladesh and hurricanes in the Caribbean. The result is mounting evidence that human activity is raising the risk of some types of extreme weather, especially those linked to heat. To track how the evidence on this fast-moving topic is stacking up, Carbon Brief has mapped — to the best of our knowledge — every extreme-weather attribution study published to date.
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ducing the future risk of extreme weather requires reducing greenhouse gas Extreme Weather & Climate Change: Understanding the Link and Managing the May 19, , from rithillel.orgAdГЁle B. 08.06.2021 at 16:38
The projections for climate change in Poland point to several risks associated with an increase in the frequency, intensity and severity of weather extremes (heat.